Knowledge@Wharton has an interesting perspective on new softwawre business models, in Why Software Business Models of the Future Probably Won’t Come in a Box.
Kartik Hosanagar, an operations and information management professor at Wharton, believes that "a hybrid business model — consisting of parts of traditional licensing, on-demand, ad supported and even open source" will emerge and be the "winning model of the future".
My take: I generally agree. I supported multiple hybrid Software-Internet business models when I worked at Intuit. But this transition won’t be easy. Just as Google Adsense, Craig’s List free classifieds, and the general move to performance-based marketing on the internet have confounded the newspaper industry, there are going to be wrenching changes ahead for business people who can’t broaden their perspective.
And, that doesn’t even begin to raise the equally significant mindset change needed to cope with mobility (an all-the-time, everywhere wireless mobile environment).